Posts Tagged ‘Polling’

Richardson Approval Numbers in Free Fall

Wednesday, February 24th, 2010

The Teflon Governor is Teflon no more.

We’re going to have our New Mexico poll results out starting tomorrow- perhaps the most interesting thing we found is that Bill Richardson has become one of the least popular Governors in the country, with 63% of voters in the state disapproving of him to only 28% approving. He’s even in negative territory among Democrats at a 42/47 spread.

I’ve always been amazed by Governor Bill Richardson’s early popularity. Despite the rhetoric, the “successes” of this Administration have been nothing more than smoke and mirrors.

And, this is just the tip of the iceberg. I could go on for days, but you can just hit the appropriate label button below and read it all without me repeating it.

So, what does this all mean for the Democratic hopefuls during this upcoming election year.  Well, right now it looks like Richardson Administration #2, Lt. Governor Diane Denish, is still polling out ahead… barely:

Where New Mexico departs from its regional counterparts is that it still looks favored to vote Democratic in its most significant statewide race this year. Lieutenant Governor Diane Denish leads her top Republican opponent, Pete Domenici Jr., by a 45-40 margin and has leads of 14-18 points over the rest of the GOP field.

Denish is by far the best known of the candidates running, with 41% of voters in the state holding a positive opinion of her to just 34% who see her negatively.

 Keep in mind, the Lt. Governor has been campaigning for this position for going on two years. So, I don’t know that those  numbers are anything to celebrate about – especially, considering Pete Domenici Jr. just got in the race a couple of weeks ago.

It’s going to be very hard for the Lt. Governor to start disengaging herself from the Governor after Denish has been so silent for so long. Only 34% of the voters see her negatively right now, but let’s be realistic.  She has operated in the shadow of Governor for the last eight years. His failed policies are bringing him down very quickly.  It’s not going to be very long before that same problem is encountered by Richardson’s #2. This is particularly true when we consider that the Governor spent so much time out of state during his Presidential dream chasing, that the state was actually being run by Lt. Governor Diane Denish.

Strange Polls Emerge

Tuesday, April 14th, 2009

It must be the season of nonsensical polls. No, I’m not talking about the Westside only mayoral poll with no percentages being released by Joe Monahan. I’m actually thinking about the CNN poll under the headline, American’s Think Obama is on Track with the Economy. It reads a little something like this:

Hours before President Barack Obama on Tuesday morning delivers what the White House calls a major speech on the economy, a new national poll indicates that nearly six in 10 Americans think he has a clear plan for solving the country’s economic problems.

Fifty-eight percent of people questioned in a CNN/Opinion Research Corporation survey released Tuesday morning say Obama has a clear plan to deal with the recession. That’s more than double the 24% who think that Republicans in Congress have a clear plan on the economy. Nearly three in four polled say the GOP doesn’t have a clear economic plan.

Maybe it’s just me, but the whole article seems somewhat biased. First off, shouldn’t a poll compare Republicans in Congress to Democrats in Congress? Anyone who pays any attention to polling numbers in recent years knows that Congress lags the President. Even when President Bush had his lowest approval ratings, Congress had even lower approval ratings.

Only 29 percent of Americans gave Bush a positive grade for his job performance, below his worst Zogby poll mark of 30 percent in March. A paltry 11 percent rated Congress positively, beating the previous low of 14 percent in July.

The article attempts to put positive spin after postive spin on the public perception of President Obama:

Sixty-two percent of those surveyed say Obama is doing enough to cooperate with Republicans in Congress. Though that’s down from 74% in February, it’s still ahead of the 37% who think that congressional Republicans are doing enough to cooperate with Obama. Six in 10 say the GOP is not doing enough to reach out and work with the president.

Again, comparing Presidential polling numbers to Congressional polling numbers is a reach. In the paragraph above, it is clear that the focus is trying to be switched away from the fact that there is a 12% drop in those that perceive the President is trying to act in a bipartisan manner to tackle the economic crisis.

I fully expect that 58% number to continue to decline in the coming months. No, it’s not because I wish failure upon the President. I don’t wish failure upon anyone, and especially when that failure means hardship for more of my neighbors, friends and family. But, I do believe the policies introduced are dooming us to failure. Sure, there are those that are trying to paint a rosy picture:

Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke said Tuesday there’s been “tentative signs” that the recession may be easing. But he also warned that any hope for a lasting recovery hinges on the government’s success in stabilizing shaky financial markets and getting credit to flow more freely again.

Specifically, the Fed chief mentioned improvements in recent data on home and auto sales, home building and consumer spending as flickering signs of encouragement.

But, I’m sorry. The blips up in one sector are no more a sign of economic recovery than that the radical fluctuations from day to day in the markets. Need proof? Well, consider at the same time that the Fed chief was talking about improvements in the economy we can also read about the following declines:

Retail sales suffered an unexpected big decline in March which broke two straight months of improving sales, the government reported Tuesday.

The Commerce Department said total retail sales fell 1.1% last month, compared with February’s revised gain of 0.3%. Sales in February were originally reported to have dipped 0.1%.

Economists surveyed by Briefing.com had been expecting an increase of 0.3% in March.

Until we start facing reality, we are not going to be able to deal with the crisis at hand. No amount of spin can turn this around. Spending ourselves further into debt isn’t the solution either.

For the 42% of you that feel the same way, I hope you’ll come out tomorrow to Independence Grill and join the Albuquerque Tea Party Tax Day Rally.

Polling Half the Tax Increase

Friday, March 6th, 2009

Wow, I’m amazed. Unemployment in New Mexico continues to rise and and the nation’s unemployment numbers for February are the worse we’ve seen in 25 years:

The U.S. economy continued to hemorrhage jobs in February, bringing total job losses over the last six months to more than 3.3 million, and taking the unemployment rate to its highest level in 25 years.

The government reported Friday that employers slashed 651,000 jobs in February, down from a revised loss of 655,000 jobs in January. December’s loss was also revised higher to a loss of 681,000 jobs, a 59-year high for losses in one month.

Yet, the Albuquerque Journal has an article on a poll with the headline, Poll Shows Support for School Tax. For the life of me, I can’t imagine who in their right mind would want two tax increase under these circumstances:

Proponents of a proposed new public school funding formula hope that results from a new poll will breathe life back into legislation stalled in a House committee.

The poll, conducted this week, found that 59 percent of registered voters surveyed statewide support a gross-receipts tax increase to pay for the new formula. The formula would add about $360 million to school budgets.

Amazing, a majority of registered voters surveyed support two tax increases. Wait a minute. Let me look at that again. Hmm, something’s not right. Oh, I see.

Voters weren’t asked about a proposed increase in personal income taxes, which is another component of the house bill.

Nice. A poll that only asks about one part of the proposed tax increases. Isn’t that convenient. Funny how they didn’t think to poll whether folks would support increasing personal income taxes on everyone in the state of New Mexico earning under $8 an hour.

What’s even more interesting is the actual breakdown of those strongly supporting this half truth:

Of those polled, 23 percent strongly oppose the measure while 13 percent somewhat oppose it. Strongly supporting it were 36 percent, and somewhat supporting it were 23 percent.

Now that’s interesting… only 36% strongly support it. I wonder how many of those somewhat supporting would drop if you asked them how they felt about the tax increase if they knew it was only part of the equation? I wonder how many of those somewhat supporting the gross receipts tax increase would still support it if you helped them do the math, and pointed out that the tax increase proposed would increase the percentage they pay in taxes by more than 10%.

If I were legislator considering this bill, I wouldn’t let this polling change my mind. When it come time for re-election, you can be sure that the facts around this tax release will be presented in a lot more factual light. The 36% that strongly support it may still vote for you, but last I checked, that wasn’t even close to a majority.