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A Quick Reality Check

It’s been said before, but it is worth repeating. Mayor Martin Chavez has virtually no chance of beating Lt. Governor Diane Denish in a race for the Democratic nomination for Governor in 2010. What is amusing in this week’s Journal poll is not how low he polled, but Mayor Chavez’s response to the poll (subscription):

The election is almost three years away and one of the candidates hasn’t even committed to running, but just for fun let’s ask the question:

What if Lt. Gov. Diane Denish and Albuquerque Mayor Martin Chávez faced off in a Democratic primary for governor today?

The results of a Journal Poll of New Mexico Democrats indicate Denish would win. And maybe by a bunch.

Half of those surveyed— who said they’re likely to vote in a 2010 primary— said they would vote for Denish. Chávez had the support of 30 percent. The rest said it was too early to say.

Chávez, who is raising political money but hasn’t said yet whether he’ll run for governor, on Saturday called his numbers “remarkable.”

“She’s been campaigning full time for almost a year and I’m not even a candidate, so I’m very pleased. Those are good numbers,” Chávez said.

Did Mayor Chavez actually say that with a straight face? We’re talking about a guy who has held as many as 57 news conferences in 69 days. Mayor Chavez gets a lot more statewide press than Lt. Governor Denish, yet it’s just not working for him.